Please keep in mind that predicting the risk of a liability event is not the same thing as predicting whether the event will actually occur. However, this assessment is based on whether the liability events actually did occur. Using that standard, my grade for our performance in the predictions is an "A-," a good grade that I feel is deserved for the particular accuracy of our FDIC prediction.
Here is my assessment of how we did on each prediction that we made December 21, 2010 about AMC liability risks in 2011:
- "Several AMCs will be sued by the FDIC." We did well on this prediction. Two AMCs were, in fact, sued by the FDIC on May 9, 2011 for more than $100 million each. A third AMC's appraisals have become the subject of another FDIC action, but the AMC is not named as a defendant.
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